I’ve never posted anything on social media before, but I decided to change that today because I felt it was important that I, as a neuroscientist, respond to the Citrini Research Report and the counter-perspective from Citadel Securities.
If you haven’t read it, the Citrini Research team developed a scenario for the development of our economy over the coming 2-3 years in light of the phenomenal advancements of Agentic AI in recent years and months with a rather negative spin. The report even had a pretty negative - while temporary - impact on key stocks mentioned in the report. In contrast, Citadel Securities in their response flagged a few data flaws in the Citrini Research report and added a positive spin for our economy while still projecting a huge change for the workforce.
I feel both reports miss a very important aspect - our human biology, in particular the biology of the human brain. I would like to add this perspective here to complete the picture.
In case intelligence really becomes a commodity, I promise, the economic crisis is the smallest issue we have to handle.
A neuroscientific perspective on the Citrini report – Chapter 1: Why it actually is much worse
Since the onset of our current economic system a few hundred years ago, intelligence was the key differentiator to promotion, gaining status in society and ultimately wealth. On a molecular level, it became the key source for two of the most important neurotransmitters essential for our life: Dopamine and Serotonin. These two neurotransmitters drive activation of certain brain regions and are responsible for emotional experiences such as motivation, enthusiasm, recognition, pride and self-esteem. In addition, they are fundamental for learning and memory formation: a human shouldn´t forget the good things that drive us forward and ideally repeat them to continue moving in the direction of progress. Because these molecules are so crucial for the progress of life, they have been conserved over hundreds of millions of years of evolution. In every reproduction, they have been selected as key molecules to keep: for survival…and apparently for feeling good while trying to survive.
In turn, a lack of Dopamine is associated with a sustained absence of all (!) positive emotions, learning deficiency and challenges in forming and recalling memories. A lack of Serotonin is estimated to be associated with 15-50% of all mood-disorders which comprise depression, anxiety, substance addictions and – which is very important in our context here – aggression disorders, such as intermittent explosive disorder. In addition to a lack of these two positive promoters we also observe how negative promoters such as Cortisol and other stress hormones are skyrocketing. This is not a surprise. We are continuously bombarded with negative news around “AI will be taking all our jobs” and we start seeing a real-life impact daily. The increasing unemployment rates for young, highly trained college graduates is just one data point that is close to all of us: as graduates or their parents and grandparents. Cortisol is a very powerful blocker of Dopamine and Serotonin which is adding to the deteriorating mental states we see around us, in particular driving depression, anxiety and aggression. In addition, it drives immune deficiencies & chronic inflammation, obesity, sleeping problems and significantly lowers fertility (…something pretty crucial for survival of a species, you might agree).
Why does this all matter for my “neuroscientific perspective? Because we can be sure with near certainty that long before the economic collapse projected in the Citrini Report, we will face a species-wide biological emergency. If the economy truly follows the Citrini projection, the next 12-18 months will systematically starve an entire species from their key molecules essential for progress, wellbeing and survival.
Evolution, the driving force behind life, loves pressure on the system. Thus, an explosion of depression, anxiety and drug-abuse would appear to be a very effective “evolutionary clean-up” of the system by higher mortality rates, suicides and fatal drug overdoses. The speed of such a clean-up would be accelerated by the highly contagious nature of emotions. In fact, negative emotions are the most infective agents we know in biology. All this would go very very fast. Much faster than the economic decline.
Before you start challenging the numbers, let me give you some recent data on where we, as a human species, stand at the moment already: Already today, we have one billion humans clinically diagnosed with a mood disorder and approximately five billion humans showing pre-disease symptoms such as overconsumption, obesity and facing abuse and trauma. Our species is very sick and weak already – before the real storm actually starts.
Purely from the perspective of an evolutionary biologist there is not much to worry about actually. Ultimately, the human species would survive, significantly reduced but in shape for a new future. Survival of the (very few) fittest. However, it is not that simple this time.
The combination of very low levels of serotonin, some residual Dopamine and high levels of Testosterone (a third neurotransmitter in all human brains and a key hormone in all healthy males) is the neurochemical cocktail for…anger & aggression.
Anger & aggression is the oldest emotion we have as it provided the ultimate survival factor for most living organisms in the past hundreds of millions of years. Before we humans die from an attack, we counterattack. Because some time in the past a crazy attack worked and we carried the traits for aggression forward to the next generation, until today. In addition, a terminal aggressive attack gives us a massive boost of Dopamine which in turn blocks cortisol. No cortisol = no fear; A lot of Dopamine = a lot of excitement & motivation. In addition, when we attack – in particular in a hopeless situation – we feel proud on ourselves thanks to the Serotonin that is released in our brains in such a moment.
It is important to understand that the brain regions hosting aggression are located in the oldest, rudimentary structures of the human brain – it´s not key for survival today anymore and we have added much more important emotions driving our progress as humans. But we still have the full function of aggression in our brains. These rudimentary structures have the potential to completely switch off the younger brain regions responsible for empathy, gratitude, contentment, amusement, friendship and family love. In other words, our brain has the ability to revive the wild, ancient animal who has been proven to be an expert for survival over hundreds of millions of years. Once this happens, all other human characteristics are switched off.
By design, sooner or later humans always choose attack over suppression & humiliation – because a terminal attack feels better than depression & anxiety.
Looking at the projections of the Citrini report it seems highly likely in short order that the vast majority of human brains don´t give a f*** about our current order and rules anymore because our brains will autonomously decide that now is the need to act like the ancient, wild animal again.
The Citrini report tries to escape from these biological realities by introducing Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a solution. This sounds like a great idea – as far as the theory goes. Unfortunately, from a neuroscience perspective if not done correctly or too late it will work like a fire accelerator. Just try to convince a wild, animal brain to calm down because now you will get a small UBI “paid by the machines because you are not good enough”. It is biologically impossible to feel grateful when you are raging in aggression.
So, in conclusion: A long time before the time horizon of Citrini and Citadel reports ends, we will see a level of unrest and mental decline much more challenging than the economic challenge portrayed in the report. Once intelligence is a commodity, and the brain only fires with the oldest neurotransmitters, the economic crisis is the smallest issue we have to handle.
If you feel angry now because all this sounds super negative, just close your eyes and take 3-4 deep breaths to get rid of your cortisol and clear your mind a bit…and then please continue reading.
A neuroscientific answer to the Citrini report – Chapter 2: Why we actually should embrace the future and start celebrating
Fortunately, humans not only have the three neurotransmitters which I have mentioned in Chapter 1 (Dopamine, Testosterone and Serotonin). Humans have six neurotransmitters that define all their positive emotions, their progress and identity. Dopamine, Testosterone, Serotonin, Oxytocin, Cannabinoids, and Opioids.
Artificial neural networks, the key model underlying AI, and the human brain, the center for human intelligence, are both designed to solve problems.
AI does it with math, the brain with biochemistry and biophysics. AI models rely entirely on data inputs and mathematical computations without truly experiencing reality. In other words, AI is processing data – humans process experienced reality. AI lacks the deep interconnectivity, biochemical and biophysical processing and true self-awareness and experience that make human cognition unique.
Consequently, human intelligence is NOT restricted to factual data processing, a person’s cognitive ability, logical reasoning, analytical skills, memorizing & recallling facts, identifying patterns, or solving equations. Beyond cognitive intelligence, humans possess emotional and social intelligence which ultimately defines human progress, potential and identity. Humans are super-intelligent because they integrate various intelligent types. In fact, humans use their intelligence for more than just their own benefit. Humans are designed to be critical catalysts for each other's well-being and progress.
Over the past hundreds of millions of years of evolution, humans have been trained to perfection in driving collective progress. The clue for the superiority of human intelligence over AI is that the human brain does not need billions of training cycles and a huge amount of data to learn and be smart – by adding an emotional experience, human brains can learn things in a single training cycle, one moment, with a single data set, which includes emotional experience.
In conclusion, AI is processing data – humans are processing experienced reality to survive.
Our biological reward system, the six neurotransmitters, driving our positive emotions and guiding our progress is much older, much more sophisticated and much more crisis-proof than we were told in the past 3-4 years by almost everyone in the AI space. Our biological system has been ruthlessly shaped and improved in the past hundreds of millions years of reality. Only the ones with the highest, integrated cognitive, emotional and social intelligence survived. The past 300 years of our modern economy and the past 3-4 years of massive progress of LLMs and AMIs are nothing against this.
In fact, in these few hundred years we have been tricked in an economic system which is pretty good at increasing all our productivity, but far from being able to improve or replace our biology. The current system, now accelerated by AI, is trying to tell us that this world is only defined by products and services while it keeps us stuck with Dopamine, Testosterone and Serotonin (maybe a bit of Opioids once in a while), the oldest neurotransmitters we have. It misses entirely to trigger the molecules that differentiate us and make us thrive as humans: Oxytocin and Cannabinoids = Family love, friendship love, amusement, contentment and gratitude = Emotional and social intelligence
In fact, our brain is built to be enthusiastic and proud about everything we like, not only work, our bank account and our status in society (which is entirely based on our wealth). Our brain is built so we can get excited and proud on being a good partner, a good friend, a good father or mother, a good son or daughter, a good grandfather or grandmother, a great teacher, the best lover, a great creative, a great builder, great athlete, good writer, painter, musician, a great-whatever-we-want-to-be. While our current economic system is designed for constant competition, winning (sometimes) and losing (most of the times), our brain is designed and powered for collaboration, emotionally and socially winning together. Or just enjoying to create stuff together.
Our brain molecules don’t give a f*** about a job or money or status. We have systematically ill-trained our brain to care only about these things. We are humans not biological robots in a productivity and consumer world as we have been treated in recent years. We are the leaders of evolution; we are the most sophisticated and successful species using the most phenomenal (biological) code ever developed. We are the winners from countless combats and competitions to survive and thrive in reality. We are built to create, to lead, to enjoy the show on this planet.
When AI and all the phenomenal robots take me out of my job, my brain will win 50-100 hours per week to not worry or work but to progress my life as a full human. I have a long list of things I want to do and learn, a long list of friends I want to see and laugh with, every kid, my parents, my sister deserves more time to hang out with me (…maybe they disagree but we’ll find out ☺). This is the best message I have heard since a very long time.
Most of us lack Oxytocin and Cannabinoids because we are working our butts off to buy products and services that our brains don´t need. Now, I agree with all of you that in our current system we all need money, not only for food, shelter and a bit of health care but also for some preferences and conveniences we actually don’t want to miss.
So, let me develop another scenario – a scenario that considers our full potential as humans:
For a period of time we would indeed need some form of UBI. In fact, UBI works amazingly well if we use it as it was defined by the positive psychologists in the 1950s which is to provide all (!) humans, equally, a foundational base to cover their physiological and safety needs (Dopamine, some Serotonin) so they are free to pursue self-esteem, love, meaning and drive holistic human progress. Not only as an individual but as a collective.
In this timeline starting 2027, we began upgrading our economic system based on our natural molecular code for progress – the six neurotransmitters – as a new guide. The old system was outdated and incomplete, promoting only 3 out of 6 neurotransmitters and 1 out of 3 intelligence types. We realized that we deserve a system upgrade that pushes us as humans not optimizes us as productivity factors. After a successful test using the latest neuroscience and brain imaging advancements in 2026 we decided to tokenize our brain biology. Any human brain can now create a token whenever an experience generates a good moment, a good feeling, any good memory. This created token can be used as a “pay back” – or reward, or thanks – for the people who contributed to the original experience. Those who consistently create positive emotions for others begin to amass a wealth of these tokens. After a slow start in a small community of people, the economy started to grow very rapidly because the economy is now rewarding a much broader and better set of human activities because it included all beneficial activities on top of existing products and services. Activities that had a true impact on human progress & wellbeing started to increase in value and frequency. By the end of 2027, most vendors started accepting tokens instead of fiat currency for a portion of their products & services. Initially, the vendors used such token revenues only as a marketing tool but over time it became a way to start growing again after the massive price decline thanks to the huge productivity performance of the AI agents and robot networks. In the new, upgraded economy, all activities truly driving human progress could achieve premium prices in tokens as they required superior emotional and social intelligence (humans) in addition to the commoditized factual intelligence (AI). By the end of 2028, a fully integrated intelligence economy had evolved with AI agent networks driving the progress for cognitive and factual intelligence while humans were driving the emotional and social intelligence. In contrast to 2026, when all this started, the improvement of all intelligence systems had skyrocketed.
Crazy dream? Actually…no. This economy already exists. It is coded by our biology in all our brains. Every human can participate, create, play, earn already today. Our brain is pricing everything we do and experience already today in biophysical and biochemical signals.
We just have to tokenize these signals.
A few weeks ago, I was invited to Davos to speak about how we could bridge human progress & wellbeing to our current economy. And we must get this done before our economy will collapse as outlined by the scenarios from Citrini Research or Citadel Securities (…just a few years later).
We – all humans – have to focus on the most important intelligence types for our progress: emotional and social intelligence. AI and robots cannot help us with that. We have to do it. We had hundreds of millions of years to prepare for it
Sending love, Axel
This article was first published here.